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Q3 Earnings Season Starts Positively: A Closer Look
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Note: The following is an excerpt from this week’s Earnings Trends report. You can access the full report that contains detailed historical actual and estimates for the current and following periods, please click here>>>
Here are the key points:
We are off to a great start in the Q3 earnings season. Not only are most companies easily beating estimates, but the tone and substance of guidance and management commentary are also mostly reassuring and favorable. This should help sustain the positive estimate revisions trend that has been in place in recent months.
For the 58 S&P 500 members that have reported Q3 results, total earnings are up +15.4% from the same period last year on +8.0% higher revenue, with 86.2% beating EPS estimates and 79.3% beating revenue estimates. The proportion of these 58 index members beating both EPS and revenue estimates is 74.1%.
The Q3 earnings and revenue growth pace for these 58 index members represents a notable improvement over what we saw from this same group of companies in the first half of the year. The proportion of these 58 index members beating EPS and revenue estimates is tracking significantly above the historical averages for this same group of companies.
For the Finance sector, we now have Q3 results from 47.7% of the sector’s total market capitalization in the S&P 500 index. Total earnings for these Finance sector companies are up +20.4% from the same period last year on +10.9% higher revenues, with 96.2% beating EPS estimates and 88.5% beating revenue estimates.
Strong Start to the Q3 Earnings Season
American Express (AXP - Free Report) became the latest Finance player to beat Q3 earnings and revenue estimates, also providing positive and reassuring commentary about the health of the consumer and the broader economy. The American Express results followed similar results and commentary from the likes of JPMorgan (JPM - Free Report) , Citigroup (C - Free Report) , Wells Fargo (WFC - Free Report) , and others.
The economic read-through from these bank results is reassuring and positive, notwithstanding worries about non-bank lenders following a few bankruptcies. Consumer spending and household financials remain stable on the back of a labor market that remains very strong. There are signs of improving credit demand, and delinquencies are off their highs, references to ‘cockroaches’ notwithstanding.
Importantly, the capital markets business has finally started showing results, after many quarters of management teams describing improving deal pipelines. We are still at low levels relative to history. But given the favorable regulatory and monetary policy backdrop, it is reasonable to get excited about the sector’s Wall Street business.
For the 47.7% of the sector’s market capitalization that have reported Q3 results, total earnings and revenues are up +20.4% and +10.9%, respectively, and 96.2% are beating EPS estimates and 88.5% are beating revenue estimates. The proportion of these Finance sector companies beating both EPS and revenue estimates is 88.5%.
The comparison charts below show the Q3 revenue growth rates and blended beats percentages for these companies.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
For the Zacks Finance sector as a whole, Q3 earnings are expected to increase by +21.3% from the same period last year on +7.6% higher revenues, as the chart below shows.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
The Earnings Big Picture
Positive Q3 results and reassuring management commentary from these banks are helping sustain the favorable revisions trend that has been in place lately.
For 2025 Q3, the expectation is for earnings growth of +6.5% on +6.4% revenue gains. We have consistently shown in this space how Q3 estimates have steadily increased since the quarter began.
The chart below shows expectations for 2025 Q3 in terms of what was achieved in the preceding four periods and what is currently expected for the next three quarters.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
The chart below shows the overall earnings picture for the S&P 500 index on an annual basis.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
The aforementioned favorable revisions trend validates the market’s rebound from the April lows. However, the trend can only be sustained if Q3 earnings results and management guidance for Q4 and beyond confirm it.
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Q3 Earnings Season Starts Positively: A Closer Look
Note: The following is an excerpt from this week’s Earnings Trends report. You can access the full report that contains detailed historical actual and estimates for the current and following periods, please click here>>>
Here are the key points:
Strong Start to the Q3 Earnings Season
American Express (AXP - Free Report) became the latest Finance player to beat Q3 earnings and revenue estimates, also providing positive and reassuring commentary about the health of the consumer and the broader economy. The American Express results followed similar results and commentary from the likes of JPMorgan (JPM - Free Report) , Citigroup (C - Free Report) , Wells Fargo (WFC - Free Report) , and others.
The economic read-through from these bank results is reassuring and positive, notwithstanding worries about non-bank lenders following a few bankruptcies. Consumer spending and household financials remain stable on the back of a labor market that remains very strong. There are signs of improving credit demand, and delinquencies are off their highs, references to ‘cockroaches’ notwithstanding.
Importantly, the capital markets business has finally started showing results, after many quarters of management teams describing improving deal pipelines. We are still at low levels relative to history. But given the favorable regulatory and monetary policy backdrop, it is reasonable to get excited about the sector’s Wall Street business.
For the 47.7% of the sector’s market capitalization that have reported Q3 results, total earnings and revenues are up +20.4% and +10.9%, respectively, and 96.2% are beating EPS estimates and 88.5% are beating revenue estimates. The proportion of these Finance sector companies beating both EPS and revenue estimates is 88.5%.
The comparison charts below show the Q3 revenue growth rates and blended beats percentages for these companies.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
For the Zacks Finance sector as a whole, Q3 earnings are expected to increase by +21.3% from the same period last year on +7.6% higher revenues, as the chart below shows.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
The Earnings Big Picture
Positive Q3 results and reassuring management commentary from these banks are helping sustain the favorable revisions trend that has been in place lately.
For 2025 Q3, the expectation is for earnings growth of +6.5% on +6.4% revenue gains. We have consistently shown in this space how Q3 estimates have steadily increased since the quarter began.
The chart below shows expectations for 2025 Q3 in terms of what was achieved in the preceding four periods and what is currently expected for the next three quarters.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
The chart below shows the overall earnings picture for the S&P 500 index on an annual basis.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
The aforementioned favorable revisions trend validates the market’s rebound from the April lows. However, the trend can only be sustained if Q3 earnings results and management guidance for Q4 and beyond confirm it.